8/10/2023 0 Comments Current reddit defaults![]() ![]() About $25 billion in Social Security benefits is paid out a few days later. The government will owe about $65 billion in monthly Medicare payments to health and drug plans, as well as a large share of pay for active-duty military, veterans, civil service and military retirees and others at the start of August. Moody’s Analytics economists had forecast the X-date would arrive in August, but they now say that it could come as soon as early June.Īnd Wells Fargo analysts now believe there is a “small tail risk” that Treasury could hit the X-date in early June, though they say the most probable scenario is still early August. It noted in a Friday report, however, that Treasury has only received around 56% of the expected tax collections. That is prompting Goldman Sachs analysts to now say that an early June deadline looks “nearly as likely” as the late July deadline that they project. While tax receipts were always expected to be below 2021’s robust levels, they are even weaker than forecast – down around 35% so far. Yellen is expected to update her projection in the near future as the department gets a clearer picture of how much it collected in tax revenue for 2022 and the first quarter of this year.īut analysts are warning that it doesn’t look good. A variety of forecasters estimated that the so-called X-date, when the US would default, would arrive over the summer or in the early fall. When the US hit its debt ceiling in January, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen informed Congress that cash on hand and “extraordinary measures” should last at least until early June. Interactive: The $31.4 trillion debt dilemma
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